FVV fuel studies on eFuels to the point

FVV study: eFuels play a crucial role in achieving climate targets
What actually is a life cycle analysis? Or: Why you can’t mix apples and pears. may compare with each other
The most important results of the FVV fuel studies at a glance
“The amount of data is enormous”: This is how the FVV fuel studies came about

FVV study: eFuels play a crucial role in achieving climate targets

From 2050, no net greenhouse gases are to be emitted in the EU. In an extensive series of studies commissioned by FVV e.V. // Science for a moving society(www.fvv-net.de), scientists have examined energy carriers, i.e. everything that makes energy storable and transportable
(e.g. fuels, hydrogen, batteries), and energy converters, i.e. machines that convert chemically or electrically stored energy into motion (e.g. combustion engines or electric motors).
In particular, e-cars were compared with fuel cell vehicles and vehicles with combustion engines and e-fuels. Important: In the analysis, the authors of the study took into account the entire infrastructure requirements and all greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from production through use to recycling in a detailed life cycle analysis (LCA).

The surprising result:

All of the solutions examined offer a comparably high level of sustainability over this comprehensive observation horizon if they – including the complete, sustainable energy supply chain – are introduced at the same speed. It is not the choice of climate-neutral neutral drive technologies per se, but the speed of their introduction is absolutely crucial for for achieving the goal of GHG-neutral, climate-friendly and resource-conserving road transport in the EU. road transport in the EU. The FVV study was the first to examine how sustainable technologies can be introduced as quickly as possible under the most favorable legal framework conditions . let The fastest way to achieve GHG-neutral mobility is through a clever mix of different Achieving Technology Pathways. This means that even the ambitious German target of having to be climate neutral. Under ideal regulatory conditions (accelerated licensing procedures, long-term viable and attractive business models), this could even be achieved even before 2040.

Fleet-compatible eFuels play a decisive role in the best possible technology mix to achieve the climate targets, as they offer the unique option of making existing vehicles GHG-neutral.neutral with regard to new issues. The establishment of extensive eFuel production over the next ten to twenty years is thus of crucial importance for achieving the climate targets. Thereby the Driving with eFuels is cheaper in the long term and tax-adjusted on balance than driving an electric car. driving.

What actually is a life cycle analysis?

Many studies on the efficiency and sustainability of vehicles consider the following when making comparisons Between electromobility and liquid or gaseous fuels, only the use of liquid or gaseous fuels of the vehicle (tank-to-wheel). If energy generation is also taken into account (well-to-wheel), the potentials of sustainable fuels are often not considered with included. For example, the use of battery-powered electric vehicles with various Stommixes and then compared with vehicles with internal combustion engines that be operated exclusively with fossil fuels. The climate-friendly use of of eFuels with the argument that eFuels do not even exist. How quickly you complete energy systems – both greenhouse gas (GHG)-neutral electromobility and the production of production of new low-emission eFuels – is practically not considered in any study. These analyses focus only on a specific stage of the life cycle or on specific technologies technologies and therefore do not adequately capture the reality of the GHG supply chains. In particular, there is a lack of ramp-up scenarios with realistic introduction speeds for individual GHG reduction technologies.

However, in order to be able to make a serious comparison between different types of drive, a A complete system life cycle assessment (LCA) must be applied, which takes into account all GHG emissions generated throughout the entire life cycle of a product, without exception. (vehicle construction and scrapping, construction and operation of the entire energy infrastructure, i.e. wind turbines, solar panels, power lines, gas stations). In addition, the the achievable build-up speeds of complete technology paths must be taken into account.

For this reason, the authors of the FVV fuel studies IV and IVb haveprepared a detailed life cycle analysis.
Source: FVV: How fast is sustainable?

The most important results of the FVV fuel studies at a glance:

A mix of greenhouse gas (GHG)-neutral energy sources and corresponding vehicle propulsion systems can significantly accelerate the transition to GHG neutrality of the road transport sector in Europe. If policymakers create the right legal framework today (2023), we could already be driving GHG-neutral cars by 2040 with an ideal technology mix!
The key to minimizing GHG emissions is to phase out fossil fuels as quickly as possible. This will only be possible if Europe introduces sustainable eFuels on a large scale, which will make it possible to operate the existing fleet sustainably. Despite the long lead times and planning horizons for building the necessary synthesis plants, eFuels can significantly accelerate GHG reductions. If policymakers create the right legal framework today, we would be able to run around 17 percent of the entire European vehicle fleet on eFuels as early as 2030, and this figure would rise to 77 percent by 2035.
Many single-technology scenarios cannot achieve GHG neutrality at all by 2050. For example, a maximum defossilization rate of only 76 percent is possible by 2050 with battery electric vehicles alone. This means that only 76 percent of vehicles can be powered by green electricity, the rest are still powered by fossil fuels and emit correspondingly high levels of CO2.
With an electric vehicle-only scenario, 39 percent more GHGs are cumulatively emitted by 2050 than with an optimal technology mix (which is more than is emitted in all of Germany within five years). If there were no bottlenecks in cobalt supply and the power grid, a 100 percent defossilization rate by 2050 would theoretically be possible with electric vehicles alone – but then still with 28 percent more GHG emissions than necessary and with 27 percent higher costs compared to an optimal technology mix.
A ban on internal combustion engines from 2035 would lead to higher GHG emissions than necessary. It also reinforces dependencies on critical technical ramp-ups of the necessary infrastructure for alternative propulsion technologies along the entire value chain. It also limits the ability to accelerate further defossilization of the vehicle fleet through the use of compatible synthetic energy sources such as eBenzine and eDiesel in vehicles with internal combustion engines.
Ultimately, the goal is to optimize “greenhouse gas system efficiency” rather than the “energy efficiency of drive types.” The CO2 fleet regulation for vehicles, for example, only provides for a limit on tank-to-wheel GHG emissions, without taking the
upstream chain into account. Only what comes out of the tailpipe counts, but not what coal-fired power plants emit when producing electricity for driving the cars and for battery cell production.

How the FVV fuel studies came about

“The extensive, detailed data base is the real treasure of the study, which makes it so different from all the other studies,” says study director Dr. Ulrich Kramer. The quantity and quality of required input data that such a life cycle analysis requires is enormous. Therefore other studies usually draw on existing databases. Thus they are based always based on the same old data sets, which are completely insufficient for a look into the future. are.

The more than 60 specialists of the FVV working group have, in the four years that the FVV- Fuel studies IV and IVb lasted, in countless technical meetings all the Input parameters put to the test. In numerous cases, the assumptions were from other studies as unrealistic and outdated. In many studies, for example neglects the fact that in a fully sustainable energy system, using only wind and solar as energy sources, energy energy sources, energy storage systems will be needed to provide energy during the so-called during the so-called “dark lulls” when neither the sun is shining nor the wind is blowing sufficiently to blows to secure the energy supply.

Furthermore, people often only calculate with standard vehicle consumption figures, forgetting that in winter the vehicle interior must be heated. Other studies fantasize theoretical tax rates on future energy sources into the study instead of looking at pure costs, and simulate “emotional buyer behavior” in this way. “With such sleight of hand, you can make any generate any result. This has little to do with science,” emphasizes Dr. Kramer.

In order to eliminate these grievances, the FVV working group developed a purely fact-based techno-economic analysis and put every figure to the test. Since the advisory board participants from the entire political spectrum (from Aramco to ifeu), the balance of the data is ensured. balance of the data is ensured, even if in a purely quantitative comparison of studies, the FVV quantitative comparison of studies, the FVV study with its assumptions is often which mostly copy from the same databases.

In addition, care was taken in the FVV study to avoid best-case scenarios as far as possible. were assumed, but realistic average values. For example, it was not assumed that individual transport in Europe will decrease drastically or that the Energy consumption drops to below 2,000 TWh/year. Nor do the authors assume extreme efficiency improvements, which serve as the basis for many scientific publications.

“It would be fatal toplanGermany’s energy future on the basis of best-case scenarios, particularly in terms of energy security and the economic security of Germany as a business location “, says Dr. Kramer.

Source: https://www.fvv-net.de/science/wie-schnell-geht-nachhaltig

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